Critical uncertainties

The purpose of Critical Uncertainties is to help a group test the strength of current strategies and build resilience for navigating future challenges. Rather than producing a fixed plan, this Liberating Structure:

Prepares teams for strategic thinking in uncertain environments.
Encourages exploration of multiple possible futures, helping participants recognize and respond to emerging patterns.
Builds adaptive capacity, enabling distributed, flexible action.
Shifts focus from rigid planning to resilient readiness, so the group can absorb disruptions and still move forward effectively.

Time needed
100 minutes

Preparation

Offline Format	Online Format
Flip chart, post its for each group	Prepare virtual whiteboard (e.g. Miro)
Prepare split into 4 smaller groups (if not enough people, create 2 small groups)	Prepare split into 4 smaller groups (if not enough people, create 2 small groups)

Set the stage
1. Define the Strategic Challenge/Question: Start with a clear and compelling strategic challenge or question that the group needs to explore for the future. Examples:
  - "What will our organization's market look like in 5 years?"
  - "How can we thrive in the rapidly changing technological landscape?"
  - "What is the future of our industry?"
2. Explain the Purpose: Briefly explain the Critical Uncertainties process. Emphasize that the goal is not to predict the future, but to prepare for multiple plausible futures. This helps to make strategy more resilient.
Step-by-step and timing
1. Introduction and steps clarification, divide people in groups (2min)
2. Generate Potential Uncertainties. Groups are preparing a list of uncertainties by answering question: "What are the biggest uncertainties (factors we don't know for sure) that could significantly impact our strategic challenge/question in the future?" (10 min)
  - As a facilitator: Quickly cluster, avoid deep discussion at this point. The goal is to get all the uncertainties out.
3. Identify Critical Uncertainties. Explain the two criteria for selecting the "critical" uncertainties (5 min):
  - High Impact: Which uncertainties, if they play out in different ways, would have the most significant impact on our strategic challenge?
  - High Uncertainty: Which of these highly impactful factors are the most uncertain? (i.e., we genuinely don't know how they will unfold).
  - As a facilitator: Prepare matrixes as shown in template (see additional documents) - (Impact on one axis, Uncertainty on the other).
4. Group Selection: Engage the group in a discussion to narrow down the clusters to the two (and only two!) most critical uncertainties and place them on the matrix.
  - As a facilitator: Sometimes, it's easier to first identify the top 3-5 high-impact, high-uncertainty factors, and then debate between them to select the final two
5. On the matrix: For each of the four quadrants, ask the group to give it a memorable and descriptive name and describe what that future looks like (10 min):
  - "What are the key characteristics of this world?"
  - "What challenges and opportunities exist here?"
  - "What is different about this scenario compared to the others?"
  - As a facilitator: Capture key bullet points for each scenario directly in the quadrants. Encourage imaginative but plausible descriptions.
6. Identify Implications/Opportunities/Threats: For each scenario, discuss:
  - "If this scenario comes true, what are the biggest implications for our strategic challenge?"
  - "What opportunities would arise?"
  - "What threats would we face?"
7. Discover Robust Strategies. Each group brainstorms three strategies that would help the group operate successfully in the scenario that it has described . You can support by asking (10 min):
  - "Given these four very different futures, what strategies or actions would be robust (i.e., would work well or at least not be disastrous) across all four scenarios?"
  - "What early warning indicators should we be looking for to tell us which scenario is emerging?"
  - As a facilitator: Guide this discussion to identify actions that are resilient and adaptable, rather than strategies optimized for just one predicted future. Capture these robust strategies.
8. The group works together to identify strategies that are flexible enough to succeed across different types of situations, as well as those that are tailored to a specific scenario but offer protection against potential risks. The goal is to strike a balance between broad strategies and those designed for specific challenges. (10 min)
9. Each small group debriefs with What, So What, Now What? (10 min)
Hints
1. Have fun with naming each quadrant (song and book titles work nicely)
2. Embrace Discomfort: This process pushes people out of their comfort zones. Be prepared for some initial resistance to uncertainty.
3. Strict Adherence to Two Uncertainties: This is critical. Resist the urge to add more, as it quickly becomes unmanageable.
4. Visuals are Paramount: The matrix and the captured ideas in each quadrant are essential for the group's comprehension and engagement.
5. No "Most Likely" Scenario: Continually remind the group that the goal is not to find the most likely scenario, but to prepare for a range of possibilities.
6. Focus on Robustness: The output should be strategies that are flexible and useful regardless of which future unfolds.
7. Time Management: Keep the pace moving. This is a discovery process, not an in-depth research project for each scenario.
Examples of use
1. Strategic Business Planning (General Industry)
- Strategic Challenge: "How can our company achieve sustainable growth in the next 5-10 years?"
- Identified Critical Uncertainties:
  - Speed of Technological Disruption: Slow & Predictable vs. Rapid & Unforeseeable
  - Regulatory Environment: Highly Regulated & Restrictive vs. Deregulated & Open
- Four Scenarios:
  
  "Stable but Stagnant" (Slow Tech, High Reg)
  
  "Controlled Innovation" (Rapid Tech, High Reg)
  
  "Wild West Innovation" (Rapid Tech, Deregulated)
  
  "Traditional Growth" (Slow Tech, Deregulated)
- Robust Strategies: Invest in adaptable R&D, develop strong lobbying capabilities, maintain diversified revenue streams, foster a culture of continuous learning.
2. Product Development / Innovation
- Strategic Challenge: "What kind of new product should we launch to meet future customer needs for [Product Category]?"
- Identified Critical Uncertainties:
  - User Data Privacy Concerns: Minimal Concern vs. Extreme Concern
  - Market Adoption of AI: Slow & Niche vs. Rapid & Ubiquitous
- Four Scenarios:
  
  "Feature-Rich & Data-Driven" (Minimal Privacy, Rapid AI)
  
  "Secure & Specialized AI" (Extreme Privacy, Rapid AI)
  
  "Simple & Private" (Extreme Privacy, Slow AI)
  
  "Feature-Focused & Basic" (Minimal Privacy, Slow AI)
- Robust Strategies: Build privacy-by-design into all products, invest in modular AI components, create a flexible product architecture, continuously research ethical AI.
3. Organizational Change Management
- Strategic Challenge: "How can we successfully implement our new agile operating model across the entire organization?"
- Identified Critical Uncertainties:
  - Employee Buy-in & Adaptability: High Enthusiasm & Quick Adaptation vs. Strong Resistance & Slow Adoption
  - Senior Leadership Alignment & Support: Fully Aligned & Actively Supportive vs. Fragmented & Passive Support
- Four Scenarios:
  
  "Smooth Sailing" (High Enthusiasm, Fully Aligned)
  
  "Top-Down Push" (Strong Resistance, Fully Aligned)
  
  "Grassroots Agility" (High Enthusiasm, Fragmented Support)
  
  "Resistance Stalemate" (Strong Resistance, Fragmented Support)
- Robust Strategies: Invest heavily in continuous communication and transparency, develop change champions at all levels, create mechanisms for bottom-up feedback, ensure visible and consistent leadership commitment.
Link with other Liberating Structures
Use 1-2-4-All in very short cycles for each step

String together with
Link to Liberating Structures page
Critical uncertainties
Link to virtual whiteboard template (Miro)

Critical uncertainties

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